Global stocks ended modestly higher and portfolios underperformed. Markets continued digesting US election results, shifting their focus to Trump’s potential policy initiatives and cabinet appointments. We expect Trump accomplishes less than hoped or feared over the next 12-18 months, and relief from pre-election angst should continue. US October data were mostly positive.
European data were sparse. Eurozone industrial production increased 1.2% y/y ahead of estimates in September, while inflation rose 0.5% y/y as expected. In the UK, October retail sales grew 2% from the previous month, beating expectations. Other UK data, including a falling unemployment rate and modest inflation, remain consistent with our view Brexit-induced recession fears are overblown.
China released key October economic data. Broader money supply growth and fixed investment beat expectations, indicating the Chinese economy remains stable despite worries to the contrary. In the week ahead, economic releases are light. The US announces durable goods orders and home sales while the Fed releases November meeting minutes. French voters go to the polls in a presidential party primary. Eurozone PMI data is expected and Japan releases inflation and PMI data.